I'm not an analyst. Seems like the above reasons are valid, and if you click through the links and read the whole articles, they give other valid reasons, too. But I think many people are ignoring a big reason people went to the movies so much less last year.
There were a lot of stupid movies. And the movies that weren't stupid weren't worth seeing more than once. Since Twitter, Facebook, and other social networking and media mean that people know instantly what everyone thinks, when a movie is stupid, all our friends know not to waste their money. The answer isn't to get rid of Twitter, but to make good movies so that people talk them up and go again.
And another reason? There are a lot of stupid marketing people who advertise movies. Did you see the billboards for We Bought a Zoo (which was a good movie that no one saw)? If I didn't have a movie buff friend who told me it was a movie, I would have gone right on thinking it was an advertisement to take the family to the zoo over Christmas break.
By the time I was talking to people about going to see it, their response was, "I've never heard of that movie."
So my advice is to make better movies and then market them so we have some idea what we're going to see.
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